Analysis on the Cause of Fluctuation of Tea Export Trade between China and the United States&#x02014;&#x02014;Based on the Modified CMS Model

LIU Shiyu; LI Daohe

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Journal of Tea Science ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6) : 876-888.

Analysis on the Cause of Fluctuation of Tea Export Trade between China and the United States——Based on the Modified CMS Model

LIU Shiyu¹, LI Daohe^2,*

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Abstract

Based on the analysis of the current situation of China's tea export trade to the United States, this paper used a modified constant market share model (CMS) to study the causes of fluctuations of China's tea export trade to US from 2000 to 2019. The results indicate that the increase of tea import demand in the US market was the most important driving force for the growth of China's tea export, while the competitiveness effect and second-order effect played a strong reverse role. The results of RCA indicate that the export competitiveness of all kinds of Chinese tea in the US market tended to decline over recent years. In addition, the export structure of Chinese tea did not meet the demand structure of the US market, and the rise of tea production costs also hindered the growth of China's tea export to the US market.

Key words

CMS model / tea export / trade fluctuation

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LIU Shiyu, LI Daohe. Analysis on the Cause of Fluctuation of Tea Export Trade between China and the United States——Based on the Modified CMS Model[J]. Journal of Tea Science. 2021, 41(6): 876-888

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