总结分析了21世纪以来我国茶产业取得的成就和发展特点;对今后5~10年我国茶产业发展的外部环境、供给能力与茶叶需求的变化进行了预测,认为我国未来茶产业发展虽受市场需求、生产要素双重制约,但仍有较大的发展空间。只要能正视问题、抓住机遇,加快转型升级,提升市场竞争力,我国茶产业仍能实现稳步发展。到2015年我国茶产业发展规模预计为178.5万t,2020年预计为220万t。

This paper analyzed achievements and developing factors of Chinese tea industry since the 21^th century and made predictive parsing to the external environment, supplying ability and demand of tea in five to ten years. It was considered, though the development of Chinese tea industry was restricted by market demand and production factors, that it would have a relative broad space for development. Chinese tea industry could develop steadily in future on the conditions to solve its present issues, grasp market chance, improve competitive ability and quicken the pace of upgrade. It was predicted that the total tea output of China would be 1785000 tons in 2015 and 2200000 tons in 2020.