基于CLIMEX和ArcGIS的灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区预测

陈李林; 周浩; 赵杰

doi:10.13305/j.cnki.jts.2020.06.009

PDF(1842 KB)

茶叶科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6) : 817-829. DOI: 10.13305/j.cnki.jts.2020.06.009

研究报告

基于CLIMEX和ArcGIS的灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区预测

陈李林^1,2, 周浩^1,2, 赵杰³

作者信息 +

Potential Climate-suitable Distribution of Ectropis Grisescens in China Based on the CLIMEX and ArcGIS Prediction

CHEN Lilin^1,2, ZHOU Hao^1,2, ZHAO Jie³

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

基于中国820个气象站点数据、灰茶尺蠖已知地理分布资料和生物学数据,结合CLIMEX模型与ArcGIS软件模拟预测灰茶尺蠖在中国目前及未来的潜在分布范围,评估灰茶尺蠖的潜在分布范围及气候变暖对其分布的潜在影响。结果表明,灰茶尺蠖在中国目前的适生区主要分布在3°51′N~40°6′N,适生区面积占全国总面积的34.27%。中国大部分省份的气候条件均适合灰茶尺蠖种群生长。随着气候的变化,灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区面积总体增幅不大,但其组成变化较大。至2050年,预测灰茶尺蠖高度适生区面积占比达最大（22.23%）。相比各种能源之间的平衡情景（A1B）,较高能源需求情景（A2）下灰茶尺蠖在陕甘宁地区向内陆扩张更快。灰茶尺蠖在中国适生区分布广泛,应加强灰茶尺蠖预测预报,趁早采取防控措施,以保障茶叶优质安全生产。

Abstract

Based on the data of 820 meteorological stations in China, known geographic distribution data and biological data, the current and potential geographic distribution of a major pest Ectropis grisescens Warren in tea plantations were predicted using CLIMEX models and ArcGIS software. The potential effects of climate change on the future distribution of E. grisescens were also evaluated. The results suggest that the potential geographic distribution area was between 3°51′N and 40°6′N, which accounts for 34.27% of the total area of the country. The climatic conditions of most provinces and regions in China were suitable for the survival of E. grisescens. Due to climate change, the increasing rate of potential suitable area for E. grisescens grew slowly, but its composition changed greatly. By 2050, the predicted proportion of highly suitable area reached a maximum of 22.23%. Compared with A1B, the A2 scenario would accelerate E. grisescens extension in Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region. As E. grisescens are widely distributed in China, we suggested that monitoring measures should be improved and pest control should be taken as early as possible to ensure the safe production and quality of tea.

导出引用

陈李林, 周浩, 赵杰. 基于CLIMEX和ArcGIS的灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区预测[J]. 茶叶科学. 2020, 40(6): 817-829 https://doi.org/10.13305/j.cnki.jts.2020.06.009

CHEN Lilin, ZHOU Hao, ZHAO Jie. Potential Climate-suitable Distribution of Ectropis Grisescens in China Based on the CLIMEX and ArcGIS Prediction[J]. Journal of Tea Science. 2020, 40(6): 817-829 https://doi.org/10.13305/j.cnki.jts.2020.06.009

中图分类号： S571.1 S435.711

参考文献

[1] 黄毅. 茶园环境和栽培措施对茶尺蠖和绒茧蜂的调控及绒茧蜂EAG研究[D]. 成都: 四川农业大学, 2009.
Huang Y.Studies on regulation of tea garden environment and cultivation measures to populations of Ectropis obliqua and Apanteles spp. and electroantennogram of Apanteles spp. [D]. Chengdu: Sichuan Agricultural University, 2009.
[2] 苏仁先. 尤溪县部分茶园茶尺蠖暴发原因与防治方法[J]. 蚕桑茶叶通讯, 2016(6): 35-36.
Su R X.Outbreak reasons and control methods of Ectropis obliqua in partial tea plantations of Youxi County[J]. Newsletter of Sericulture and Tea, 2016(6): 35-36.
[3] Zhang G H, Yuan Z J, Yin K S, et al.Asymmetrical reproductive interference between two sibling species of tea looper: Ectropis grisescens and Ectropis obliqua[J]. Bulletin of Entomological Research, 2016: 1-8. doi: 10.1017/S0007485316000602.
[4] 唐美君, 郭华伟, 葛超美, 等. EoNPV对灰茶尺蠖的致病特性及高效毒株筛选[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2017, 29(10): 1686-1691.
Tang M J, Guo H W, Ge C M, et al.Pathogenic characters of Ectropis obliqua nucleopolyhedroviruses on Ectropis grisescens Warren and screening of high efficient strain[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2017, 29(10): 1686-1691.
[5] 白家赫. 茶尺蠖两近缘种的生物学特性差异和分布研究[D]. 北京: 中国农业科学院, 2018.
Bai J H.Study on differencial biological characteristics and geographical distribution of the sibling pests, Ectropis grisescens and Ectropis obliqua [D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 2018.
[6] 罗宗秀. 灰茶尺蠖和茶尺蠖性信息素鉴定及相关化学生态学研究[D]. 北京: 中国农业科学院, 2017.
Luo Z X.Identification and correlative chemical ecology studies on sex pheromone of Ectropis grisescens and Ectropis obliqua [D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 2017.
[7] 葛超美. 灰茶尺蠖的生物学特性及其体色遗传规律研究[D]. 北京: 中国农业科学院, 2016.
Ge C M.Study on biological characteristics and genetic regularity of body color of Ectropis grisescens Warren [D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 2016.
[8] 薛东洋, 吴玉池, 曹立新, 等. 茶尺蠖的发生与气象条件的关系及其防治[J]. 现代农业科技, 2009(3): 146, 149.
Xue D Y, Wu Y C, Cao L X, et al. Relationships between Ectropis obliqua and meteorological condition and its prevention and control [J]. Modern Agricultural Science and Technology, 2009(3): 146, 149.
[9] 张辉, 李慧玲, 李良德, 等. 高温及覆土逆境对茶尺蠖蛹羽化的影响[J]. 茶叶学报, 2016, 57(2): 100-103.
Zhang H, Li H L, Li L D, et al.Effect of temperature and soil coverage on pupae emergence of Ectropis obliqua Prout[J]. Acta Tea Sinica, 2016, 57(2): 100-103.
[10] 董道青, 陈建明. 茶尺蠖蛹的耐冷藏性研究[J]. 中国计量学院学报, 2008, 19(2): 178-182.
Dong D Q, Chen J M.Effects of cold storage on pupae of tea geometridae (Ectropis oliqua Prout)[J]. Journal of China Jiliang University, 2008, 19(2): 178-182.
[11] 葛超美, 殷坤山, 唐美君, 等. 灰茶尺蠖发育起点温度和有效积温的研究[J]. 植物保护, 2016, 42(6): 110-112.
Ge C M, Yin K S, Tang M J, et al.Developmental threshold temperature and effective accumulated temperature of Ectropis grisescens[J]. Plant Protection, 2016, 42(6): 110-112.
[12] 楼云芬. 茶尺蠖发育历期的温度效应[J]. 茶叶科学, 1993, 13(2): 127-133.
Lou Y F.Effect of temperature on the developmental duration of tea geometrid (Ectropis obliqua Prout)[J]. Journal of Tea Science, 1993, 13(2): 127-133.
[13] 张汉鹄. 茶尺蠖发育起点温度与有效积温研究[J]. 安徽农业科学, 1989(1): 62-66.
Zhang H H.Threshold for development and effective thermal summation of Ectropis obliqua hypulina Wehrli (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 1989(1): 62-66.
[14] 徐秀秀, 蔡晓明, 边磊, 等. 茶尺蠖潜在飞行能力的研究[J]. 茶叶学报, 2015, 56(4): 249-253.
Xu X X, Cai X M, Bian L, et al.Flight capability of the tea geometrid, Ectropis obliqua Prout (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)[J]. Tea Science and Technology, 2015, 56(4): 249-253.
[15] da Silva R S, Kumar L, Shabani F, et al. An analysis of sensitivity of CLIMEX parameters in mapping species potential distribution and the broad-scale changes observed with minor variations in parameters values: an investigation using open-field Solanum lycopersicum and Neoleucinodes elegantalis as an example[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2018, 132(1): 135-144.
[16] Chen Y T, Vasseur L, You M S.Potential distribution of the invasive loblolly pine mealybug, Oracella acuta (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), in Asia under future climate change scenarios[J]. Climatic Change, 2017, 141(4): 719-732.
[17] Kumar S, Neven L G, Yee W L.Assessing the potential for establishment of western cherry fruit fly using ecological niche modeling[J]. Journal of Economic Entomology, 2014, 107(3): 1032-1044.
[18] Khormi H M, Kumar L.Climate change and the potential global distribution of Aedes aegypti: spatial modelling using geographical information system and CLIMEX[J]. Geospatial Health, 2014, 8(2): 405-415.
[19] Ramos R S, Kumar L, Shabani F, et al.Climate model for seasonal variation in Bemisia tabaci using CLIMEX in tomato crops[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology, 2019, 63(3): 281-291.
[20] Sutherst R W, Maywald G F, Bottomley W, et al.CLIMEX version 2. User’s guide. Hearne Scientific Software[M]. Melbourne: Hearne Scientific Software Pty Ltd., 2004.
[21] 白家赫, 王志博, 肖强. 浙江茶区茶尺蠖两近缘种的遗传分化及分布[J]. 昆虫学报, 2018, 61(6): 741-748.
Bai J H, Wang Z B, Xiao Q.Genetic differentiation and distribution of two sibling species of tea geometrids in tea-growing areas in Zhejiang, eastern China[J]. Acta Entomologica Sinica, 2018, 61(6): 741-748.
[22] 夏英三. 茶尺蠖的生活习性与防治措施[J]. 福建茶叶, 1999(4): 12.
Xia Y S.Living habits and prevention measures of Ectropis obliqua[J]. Tea in Fujian, 1999(4): 12.
[23] 乔利, 洪枫, 张权, 等. 信阳市茶园灰茶尺蠖的抗药性研究[J]. 种业导刊, 2018(8): 12-14.
Qiao L, Hong F, Zhang Q, et al.Resistance of Ectropis grisescens in tea plantations of Xinyang city[J]. Seed Industry Guide, 2018(8): 12-14.
[24] 赵丰华, 吕立哲, 党永超, 等. 茶尺蠖和茶细蛾性诱剂在豫南茶园的应用研究[J]. 天津农业科学, 2017, 23(1): 91-94.
Zhao F H, Lyu L Z, Dang Y C, et al.Study on application of Ectropis obliqua and Caloptilia theivora sex pheromone in southern Henan tea garden[J]. Tianjin Agricultural Sciences, 2017, 23(1): 91-94.
[25] 朱祚亮, 江书春, 张卜芬, 等. 茶尺蠖性信息素诱杀茶尺蠖试验[J]. 现代农业科技, 2018(9): 142, 144.
Zhu Z L, Jiang S C, Zhang B F, et al. Control effects of sexual pheromone trap of Ectropic obliqua [J]. Modern Agricultural Science and Technology, 2018(9): 142, 144.
[26] 谭荣荣, 刘明炎, 龚自明, 等. 湖北省茶区主要病虫害的种类及发生规律分析[J]. 茶叶通讯, 2013, 40(4): 36-38.
Tan R R, Liu M Y, Gong Z M, et al.Investigation and analysis of diseases and insect pests in Hubei Province[J]. Tea Communication, 2013, 40(4): 36-38.
[27] 阮英东, 朱丽, 何涛. 房县茶园茶尺蠖危害特点及综合防控技术[J]. 湖北植保, 2018(3): 45-46.
Ruan Y D, Zhu L, He T.Harmful characteristics and comprehensive control technology of Ectropis obliqua in tea plantations in Fang County[J]. Hubei Plant Protection, 2018(3): 45-46.
[28] 雷该翔, 王友平, 李新华, 等. 茶尺蠖发生特点及其绿色防控对策[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2018, 57(12): 51-53.
Lei G X, Wang Y P, Li X H, et al.Occurrence characteristics and green prevention and control strategy of tea geometrid[J]. Hubei Agricultural Sciences, 2018, 57(12): 51-53.
[29] 张书平, 余燕, 李尚, 等. 天敌对白毫早茶园四种害虫空间跟随关系密切程度的年度间差异及其原因[J]. 应用昆虫学报, 2018, 55(4): 725-747.
Zhang S P, Yu Y, Li S, et al.Spatial relationships among natural enemies and four insect pests over two consecutive years[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Entomology, 2018, 55(4): 725-747.
[30] 孙钦玉, 张家侠, 罗仲兴, 等. 皖南茶区茶尺蠖发生情况及防治技术措施[J]. 中国植保导刊, 2014, 34(2): 38-40.
Sun Q Y, Zhang J X, Luo Z X, et al.Occurrence and control measures of Ectropis obliqua in tea plantations in south Anhui province[J]. China Plant Protection, 2014, 34(2): 38-40.
[31] 涂海华, 邝先飞, 毛宇, 等. 双波段LED太阳能杀虫灯对茶园害虫的控制作用研究[J]. 中国植保导刊, 2018, 38(10): 53-57.
Tu H H, Kuang X F, Mao Y, et al.Effect of solar insecticidal lamp with dual-band LED on insect pests in tea plantations[J]. China Plant Protection, 2018, 38(10): 53-57.
[32] 谢小群, 黎小萍, 杨普香, 等. 不同类型茶园主要益害生物的群落结构和消长规律分析[J]. 江西农业学报, 2018, 30(5): 65-67, 72.
Xie X Q, Li X P, Yang P X, et al.Community structure and fluctuant law of main insect pests and their natural enemies in different types of tea plantations[J]. Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi, 2018, 30(5): 65-67, 72.
[33] 熊金龙. 杀虫灯在解决茶叶农药残留中的应用效果[J]. 江西农业, 2017(21): 23.
Xiong J L.Application effect of insecticidal lamp in solving pesticide residues in tea[J]. Jiangxi Agriculture, 2017(21): 23.
[34] 李桂友, 王美兰. 博罗县茶叶种植过程中常见病虫害及防治[J]. 植物医生, 2018(6): 58-59.
Li G Y, Wang M L.Common diseases and insect pests and control in tea plantations in Boluo County[J]. Plant Doctor, 2018(6): 58-59.
[35] 杨月策, 侯渊, 杨澜, 等. 100亿孢子/mL短稳杆菌悬浮剂防治茶尺蠖田间药效试验[J]. 现代农业科技, 2018(6): 99, 102.
Yang Y C, Hou Y, Yang L, et al. Efficacy of Empedobacter brevis 10 billion spores/mL SC against Ectropis obliqua in tea plantations [J]. Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology, 2018(6): 99, 102.
[36] 刘初生. 桂林毛尖茶园主要病虫害发生规律及防治技术[J]. 时代农机, 2018, 45(6): 26-27.
Liu C S.Occurrence regularity and control technology of main diseases and insect pests of Guilin maojian tea garden[J]. Times Agricultural Machinery, 2018, 45(6): 26-27.
[37] 张方梅, 乔利, 潘鹏亮, 等. 灰茶尺蠖对三种非寄主植物精油的触角电位和行为反应[J]. 昆虫学报, 2018, 61(5): 565-573.
Zhang F M, Qiao L, Pan P L, et al.Electroantennogram and behavioral responses of Ectropis grisescens (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) to essential oils from three non-host plants[J]. Acta Entomologica Sinica, 2018, 61(5): 565-573.
[38] 姜星. 石阡苔茶主要病虫害绿色防控技术[J]. 植物医生, 2018(3): 47-48.
Jiang X.Green control techniques of main diseases and insect pests of Shiqian Taicha[J]. Plant Doctor, 2018(3): 47-48.
[39] 段小凤, 徐小茜, 田景涛, 等. 松桃县灰茶尺蠖发生动态研究[J]. 南方农机, 2018, 49(6): 1-2, 5.
Duan X F, Xu X Q, Tian J T, et al.Study on the population dynamics of Ectropis grisescens in Songtao County[J]. China Southern Agricultural Machinery, 2018, 49(6): 1-2, 5.
[40] 彭玉萍, 吴明耀, 罗宗秀, 等. 灰茶尺蠖性信息素诱杀效果试验[J]. 中国茶叶, 2018, 40(8): 30-31.
Peng Y P, Wu M Y, Luo Z X, et al.Control effects of sexual pheromone trap of Ectropis grisescens[J]. Chinese Tea, 2018, 40(8): 30-31.
[41] 罗学平. 绿色茶园病虫害系统控制[J]. 植物医生, 2017, 30(9): 51-53.
Luo X P.System control on disease and insect pests of green ecological tea plantations[J]. Plant Doctor, 2017, 30(9): 51-53.
[42] 蒲德强, 毛建辉, 陈宇, 等. 2018年四川茶叶夏秋季病虫害防治技术要点[J]. 四川农业科技, 2018(6): 31-32.
Pu D Q, Mao J H, Chen Y, et al. Key points of pest control techniques of Sichuan tea in the summer and autumn of2018 [J]. Sichuan Agricultural Science and Technology, 2018(6): 31-32.
[43] 盛忠雷. 性信息素对茶园主要鳞翅目害虫控制的研究[D]. 重庆: 西南大学, 2012.
Sheng Z L.Research of the control for sex pheromones on main Lepidoptera pests in the tea garden [D]. Chongqing: Southwest University, 2012.
[44] 田忠正, 姜军侠, 李帅, 等. 陕南茶树病虫害发生现状与防治对策[J]. 陕西农业科学, 2016, 62(6): 71-74, 86.
Tian Z Z, Jiang J X, Li S, et al.Damage situation and countermeasures of diseases and insect pests in tea plantations in southern Shaanxi[J]. Shaanxi Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2016, 62(6): 71-74, 86.
[45] IPCC. Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [R]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007: 2-18.
[46] 张晓玲, 李亦超, 王芸芸, 等. 未来气候变化对不同国家茶适宜分布区的影响[J]. 生物多样性, 2019, 27(6): 595-606.
Zhang X L, Li Y C, Wang Y Y, et al.Influence of future climate change in suitable habitats of tea in different countries[J]. Biodiversity Science, 2019, 27(6): 595-606.
[47] 杨海滨, 盛忠雷, 谢堃, 等. 不同栽培模式对山地茶园生态环境和茶叶品质的季节调控[J]. 西南农业学报, 2015, 28(4): 1559-1563.
Yang H B, Sheng Z L, Xie K, et al.Seasonal regulation of different cultivation mode on ecological environment and tea quality in hilly tea plantation[J]. Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2015, 28(4): 1559-1563.
[48] 沈洁. 茶草复合生态系统的生态生理特性及草产量研究[D]. 合肥: 安徽农业大学, 2005.
Shen J.Studies on ecological and biophysical traits and herby yields of tea-grass ecosystems [D]. Hefei: Anhui Agricultural University, 2005.
[49] 郭萧, 王晓庆, 彭萍, 等. 茶树不同成熟度叶片对茶尺蠖发育适合度的影响[J]. 茶叶科学, 2012, 32(3): 229-235.
Guo X, Wang X Q, Peng P, et al.Developmental fitness of Ectropis obliqua Prout feeding on tea leaves with different maturity[J]. Journal of Tea Science, 2012, 32(3): 229-235.
[50] 姚惠明, 周孝贵. 2016年秋季茶尺蠖暴发成因分析及防治启示[J]. 中国茶叶, 2016, 38(12): 21-22.
Yao H M, Zhou X G.Causes analysis and control enlightenment of Ectropis obliqua outbreak in autumn 2016[J]. China Tea, 2016, 38(12): 21-22.
[51] 简文双. 南靖县茶尺蠖大发生原因初探及综合防治技术[J]. 东南园艺, 2015, 3(2): 66-68.
Jian W S.A primary investigation of serious occurrence causes and comprehensive control techniques of tea geometrid in Nanjing County[J]. Southeast Horticulture, 2015, 3(2): 66-68.
[52] 高宇. 茶尺蠖天敌生态学研究进展[J]. 北方园艺, 2014(9): 203-206.
Gao Y.Research progress on ecology of natural enemies of tea geometrid[J]. Northern Horticulture, 2014(9): 203-206.
[53] 张春蓓, 黄延政, 屈家新, 等. 夷陵西北山区茶园病虫害发生规律及绿色防控对策[J]. 中国茶叶, 2017, 39(6): 42-43.
Zhang C B, Huang Y Z, Qu J X, et al.The rules of outbreak and green prevention and control strategies against the diseases and pests in tea plantations in southern regions of Yiling[J]. China Tea, 2017, 39(6): 42-43.
[54] Zhang G H, Yuan Z J, Zhang C X, et al.Detecting deep divergence in seventeen populations of tea geometrid (Ectropis obliqua Prout) in China by COI mtDNA and cross-breeding[J]. Plos One, 2014, 9(6): e99373. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0099373.
[55] 席羽. 茶尺蠖地理种群对茶尺蠖核型多角体病毒的敏感性差异及遗传变异研究[D]. 北京: 中国农业科学院, 2011.
Xi Y.Susceptibility variation against Ectropis obliqua nucleopolyhedrovirus and genetic variation in geographic populations of tea geometrid, Ectropis obliqua Prout [D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 2011.
[56] 席羽, 殷坤山, 唐美君, 等. 浙江茶尺蠖地理种群已分化成为不同种[J]. 昆虫学报, 2014, 57(9): 1117-1122.
Xi Y, Yin K S, Tang M J, et al.Geographic populations of the tea geometrid, Ectropis obliqua (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) in Zhejiang, eastern China have differentiated into different species[J]. Acta Entomologica Sinica, 2014, 57(9): 1117-1122.
[57] 姜楠, 刘淑仙, 薛大勇, 等. 我国华东地区两种茶尺蛾的形态和分子鉴定[J]. 应用昆虫学报, 2014, 51(4): 987-1002.
Jiang N, Liu S X, Xue D Y, et al.External morphology and molecular identification of two tea geometrid moth from southern China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Entomology, 2014, 51(4): 987-1002.